In workplaces where decisions are made quickly, the Ladder of Inference offers a powerful way to slow down, reflect and ensure actions are based on facts not assumptions

CREDIT: This is an edited version of an article that originally appeared in Harvard Business School

The Ladder of Inference is a powerful mental model designed to help leaders and professionals understand how decisions are made – and how they can be distorted by subconscious assumptions and biases. In fast-paced environments, it’s easy to jump to conclusions. The Ladder of Inference provides a way to pause, reflect and trace your reasoning back to objective facts, promoting better judgment, stronger communication and more informed decision-making.

Why the Ladder Matters

Every day, leaders make hundreds of micro and macro decisions – on budgets, performance, strategy and team dynamics. Often, these decisions are made quickly, guided by experience and intuition. But without conscious reflection, even well-intentioned choices can be skewed by incomplete data or cognitive bias. The Ladder of Inference helps break that cycle by making your thinking process visible. It prompts you to examine how you went from observation to action and whether the steps along the way stand up to scrutiny.

The Rungs of the Ladder: Step-by-Step

Rung 1: The Pool of Data

At the base lies the full range of raw, unfiltered information – everything you know (or could know) about a situation. This includes facts, statistics, observations, conversations, reports and informal insights. It’s your starting point.

Rung 2: Select Your Data

You can’t process everything, so your brain filters this pool and selects data it deems most relevant. The problem? This filtering often happens unconsciously and can be heavily influenced by preconceptions or emotional triggers.

Rung 3: Interpret the Data

Here, your mind assigns meaning to the data you’ve selected. You begin to form a narrative or explanation. But interpretation isn’t neutral, it’s shaped by past experiences, beliefs and expectations.

Rung 4: Reach Conclusions

At this stage, you draw a conclusion based on your interpretation. It feels like a “gut instinct” or a “logical answer,” but it’s only as sound as the process that led to it. If the initial data was biased or incomplete, your conclusion likely will be too.

Rung 5: Take Action

Finally, your conclusion leads to a decision or response. If the earlier rungs were faulty, the action may be ineffective or counterproductive. To use the Ladder of Inference well, it’s important to learn how to pause and climb back down the ladder: Ask yourself: What facts did I base this on? What might I be missing? Have I considered alternative explanations? What data would confirm – or contradict – what I think?

The Ladder in Action: Example

A project lead notices that a critical task was delivered late and assumes a specific team member is underperforming – based on a previous missed deadline. Without investigating further, the lead questions the individual’s commitment and escalates the issue. However, if they step back and climb down the ladder, they may find the delay was caused by a dependency from another department or a last-minute scope change that wasn’t communicated. By pausing to examine the facts, the project lead can address the real issue and maintain trust within the team.

By breaking down how we move from observing raw data to acting, the model highlights where assumptions, biases and misinterpretations can creep in. By learning to pause and question our reasoning, we can improve communication, strengthen trust and make better choices in complex situations.