As reported by London Daily News, the percentage of UK small businesses predicting growth has fallen to a four-year low
Nationally, growth outlook now stands at its lowest level since Q1 2021 (26%), and – if the first lockdown periods are taken out the equation – it is the first quarter in eleven years when the percentage of small businesses predicting growth has fallen below 30%.
The current position stands in stark contrast to last summer, when the ‘election bounce’ of a new government saw an immediate upturn in small business confidence, as 35% predicted growth. Two budgets later and with tariff chaos gripping the economy – small business forecasts are falling to a new low.
The research findings are the latest from Novuna Business Finance’s Business Barometer study, which has tracked the percentage of small business owners that predict growth every quarter for the last 11 years.
With UK small business confidence falling for a second successive quarter, Novuna’s new data also shows that current economic volatility is a cause of serious concern to 69% of small businesses. Whilst 12% already think US tariffs on the UK will directly impact their own businesses, a further 9% fear the supply chain disruption of tariffs on the EU. More significant, almost half of small businesses (48%) believe the current economic instability will play out in UK tax rises later this year – and 30% fear current geo-political events will trigger a fall in consumer spending this summer. All these factors are contributing to the significant fall in small business growth forecasts for the three months to 30 June.
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